Why Backing the Favourite Isn’t Always the Smartest Bet

If you’ve been backing horses for years, you know the feeling: the favourite looks strong, the odds are short, and the bookies love them. But how often do these favourites actually deliver consistent profit?

The truth is, favourites win some of the time — but not enough to make blind backing a profitable long-term strategy.

So what’s the alternative? Let’s talk about lay betting — and why going against the crowd can give you the edge you’ve been missing.

The Problem with Backing Favourites

Backing the favourite might feel like the “safe” bet. But in horse racing, even the shortest-priced runners lose — a lot more than most people think.

Here’s why blind favourite-backing rarely works:

  • Value is poor – Short odds don’t always reflect true chances.

  • Overbetting – Favourites are often overhyped and overpriced due to public money.

  • One loss wipes out multiple wins – Especially if you’re chasing poor value.

Even with a 35% strike rate, backing favourites blindly leaves little room for long-term growth.

What Is Lay Betting?

Lay betting is when you bet on a horse to lose rather than to win. If the horse doesn’t win — you win the bet.

It might sound counterintuitive, but it opens up a different way to profit from races. In fact, most horses in any given race don’t win, which gives you a statistical edge — if you know where to look.

Why Laying Favourites Can Be Profitable

Here’s the twist: while backing favourites rarely beats the market, laying the right favourites can.

That’s where strategy comes in.

At Precision Tipsters, we specialise in identifying vulnerable favourites and overhyped horses using speed ratings, historical performance, weight analysis, and jockey stats.

The result? Consistent, smart selections that allow our members to profit from horses that lose.

A Smarter Approach with Speed Ratings and Staking Systems

What separates average bettors from consistent ones is discipline — and a system.

We use:

  • 📊 Speed ratings – to identify runners who are unlikely to match previous efforts.

  • ⚖️ Weight comparisons – to detect hidden performance drops.

  • 🎯 Recommended staking systems – such as Paroli or Fibonacci, to manage risk and maximise streaks.

This isn’t guesswork. It’s a methodical approach backed by years of data.

Start Smarter – Try Lay Betting Today

You don’t have to rely on guesswork or chase every short-priced favourite.

At Precision Tipsters, we help punters like you discover a smarter way to bet — with daily lay tips, transparent results, and a proven track record.

✅ 5-day free trial for new members
🎯 Smart staking & expert analysis
📈 Consistent results, updated publicly